Scouting Manchester City: Unveiling Guardiola’s Grand Opus

In the ever-unfolding drama of the Champions League, Real Madrid and Manchester City have crafted a riveting subplot. Since their first knockout stage meeting in 2016, this fixture has morphed into a marquee encounter, making its place as a highlight in the European football calendar. The stakes are invariably high — three out of their four previous meetings, the victor has gone on to lift the Champions League trophy, 2019-20 being the only exception.

Since the moment Real Madrid drew Manchester City in this year’s quarter-finals, the buzz has been a constant — some of optimism, some of redemption and some of stress — all induced by what had happened in the tie in the previous two seasons. From Rodrygo’s miraculous brace at the Bernabéu in 2022 to a merciless thrashing by City at the Etihad in 2023, we’ve seen it all. Having said that, there so much more to see in 2024.

The narrative that evokes optimism within the Madrid faithful is — Manchester City are not as good as they were last season when they defeated Real Madrid. We will compare City’s Premier League stats and visuals for the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons to deeply uncover the truth behind this.

Shots on Target: Increased from 5.39 p90 in 2022-23 to 6.48 p90 in 2023-24.
npxG (Non-Penalty Expected Goals): Remained nearly identical, changing from 1.87 in 2022-23 to 1.86 in 2023-24.
npxG-Against (Non-Penalty Expected Goals Against): Increased from 0.78 in 2022-23 to 0.89 in 2023-24.
npxG (Non-Penalty Expected Goals difference): Manchester City’s npxG (non-penalty goals – npxG) difference dipped from 0.31 p90 to 0.16 in the last couple of seasons.

Touches in Attacking Third: Increased from 33.6 p90 to 36.9 p90.
Touches by Opponents in Defensive Third: Remained similar, from 14.8 p90 to 15.8 p90.

Tackles + Interceptions: Remained almost the same, from 18.3 p90 to 19.0 p90.
Recoveries: Decreased from 49.1 p90 to 46.4 p90.
Aerial Duels Win Percentage: Decreased from 54.6% to 52.8%.

City’s pass receptions last seasons were less frequent in the half-spaces. This season, it’s more central, diverging into the half-paces and the flanks.

Couple of more metrics to note:
Progressive Carrying Distance (Yards): Increased from 1479.4 yards to 1544.7 yards.
Post-Shot xG per Shot on Target: Remained nearly consistent, from 0.30 to 0.29.
(Changes within a 2% variance are considered identical for the purpose of this comparison. Data collected from Fbref.)

Erling Haaland’s stats from Manchester City in the Premier League seasons 2022-23 and 2023-24 indicate a slight increase in his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) and consistent quality in his shots (npxG/Shot). But he is receiving fewer progressive passes, with his touches in the attacking penalty area decreasing from 7.05 to 6.16 and in the mid-third from 9.42 to 6.79. Overall, Haaland is receiving fewer passes, dropping from 18.9 to 16.6 per 90 minutes.

Phil Foden’s stats in the Premier League for Manchester City show a slight increase in his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) from 0.29 to 0.33 between the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. Additionally, he took more shots, with an increase from 2.24 to 3.27 per 90 minutes. His touches in key areas and chance creation metrics remained almost identical in both seasons. Foden’s passing zones have shifted more on the right this season – he has been cruicial asset to Pep’s side on that flank.

A similar shift has happed with Bernardo Silva as well. Silva’s passing destinations this season are more evenly distributed on the two flanks this season, compared to last season.

Rodri’s decisive strike in the previous season’s Champions League final propelled him into solidifying his status as a pivotal figure within the Manchester City squad. Even in the shadow of established stars like Kevin de Bruyne and Erling Haaland, Rodri has emerged as an indispensable player for the reigning Premier League champions.

This season, Rodri’s increased involvement in the opponent’s half has been a noticeable evolution in his game. His roaming runs into the box have proven to be a constant threat to Premier League rivals, as he combines his physical presence with a composed and clinical approach in front of goal.

Containing Rodri will undoubtedly be a significant challenge for any opposing team. His ability to dictate the tempo of the game, while contributing both defensively and offensively, has made him an integral cog in Manchester City’s machine.

The much anticipated duel between Manchester City’s Kyle Walker and Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr. is undoubtedly one of the most captivating storylines of this tie.

Despite Pep Guardiola’s apparent pessimism regarding Walker’s inclusion in the first leg, it is widely expected that the English full-back will feature at some point over the two-legged encounter. Ironically, if Vinicius Jr. were to pick up a booking in the first leg, the potential for a battle between the two players in the second leg may be diminished.

This season, Walker’s progressive passing patterns have been largely consistent with his previous campaigns, but a notable shift has been his increased willingness to carry the ball further forward. This tactical adjustment, unlike his more inverted role that he often adopts under Guardiola, could make for an intriguing tactical battle against Vinicius Jr — who has, in return, adopted a more central role this season than ever.

In the grand scheme of encounters like the impending Real Madrid vs. Manchester City clash, form often becomes a secondary consideration. When the stakes are at their highest, it is the team that can best control the finer details and maintain its composure that typically comes out as the winners — that’s the rationale. However, 90 minutes of this tie are at the Bernabéu. We cannot stop believing and we can never give up on the magic of the Bernabéu.